Thursday, May 26, 2005
Looks like the EU constitution is going down in flames . . .
My prediction? France will defeat the resolution -- and I suspect the margin will be much closer to 60% than it will to 50%.
The French government has all but conceded the election at this point, which is going to seriously demoralize EU supporters and suppress their numbers at the polls. In addition, it will tend to inflate the "no" vote as fence straddlers decide to vote against the treaty.
The Netherlands will also reject the treaty, primarily because France has defeated it and because the Dutch have serious issues with certain aspects of the European constitution.
The net result will actually benefit Tony Blair more than anyone else. Blair has known that passage in Britain was iffy at best. Now, he can demand some changes to the Constitution (and be rejected, because many EU members think they have given Britain too much already), thus allowing Blair to walk away from the treaty without facing the wrath of his party's pro-constitution wing.