Monday, November 01, 2004
Update on Presidential Vote Equation Model
As of October 29, 2004, the model shows Bush getting about 57% of the vote.
I don't think that will happen (though I still think Bush will win). The model is an interesting one, but so many things about this race have been pretty unique -- the new campaign finance laws, the impact of 527s, the level of personal vitriole extended to the President, and the obvious anti-Bush bias by the mainstream press (how else does one explain the fact that this economy, while described in disparaging terms by the MSM aand John Kerry, is, by the numbers, is in approximately the same position it was back in October 1996, the supposed Clinton Boom Years?).
Today is going to be busy -- I have a Wednesday filing deadline for pre-trial motions, etc., in a case set for trial mid-month. On top of that, I've got a sinus infection.
I mention this because I hoped to put together some lengthy posts on the election, and on the electoral college. I am not sure that will happen now.
So let me summarize those positions here, and perhaps I will have time to espouse upon them later. I think Bush wins this election, carrying Ohio, Florida and Iowa. I think there will be riots in at least two states, Ohio and Florida (specifically in Cleveland and Miami) once those results are announced. There will be more grumbling from the left about stolen elections, though they will not want to do anything substantive about the problem.
I also want to state, for the record, my support of the Electoral College. Win or lose, popular majority or no, I will not be one of those who whines about the "outdated" Electoral College. It is still relevant and useful (and, to counter one of the more ignorant anti-Electoral College rants) is not rendered unnecessary because we have better, faster communications now than we had in the past.